Abstract
Purpose - Based on a report to the non-profit organization, The Foundation for the Future, this article reviews methodological approaches to forecasting the long-term future. This is not an analysis of the particular content of the next five hundred or thousand years but a comparative analysis of methodologies and epistemological approaches best utilized in long-range foresight work. Design/methodology/approach - Analysis of multiple methods to understand long-range foresight. Literature review. Critical theoryFindings - Methodologies that forecast the long-term future are likely to more rewarding – in terms of quality, insight, and validity – if (1) they are eclectic and layered, (2) go back in time as far as they go in the future, (3) that contextualize critical factors and long-term projections through a nuanced reading of macrohistory, and (4) focus on epistemic change,the ruptures that reorder how we know the world. Research limitations/implications - Provides frameworks to study the long-range future. Gives advice on how best to design research projects that are focused on the long-term. Limitations include: no quantitative studies were reviewed and the approach while epistemologically nuanced remains bounded by Western frameworks of knowledge.Practical implications - Provides methodological and epistemological guidance as to best methods for long range foresight. Overviews strengths and weaknesses of various approaches.Originality/value - Only research project to analyse methodological aspects of 500-1000 year forecasting. Includes conventional technocratic views of the future as well as Indic and feminist perspectives. Among the few studies to link macrohistory and epistemic analysis to study the long-term.
Purpose - Based on a report to the non-profit organization, The Foundation for the Future, this article reviews methodological approaches to forecasting the long-term future. This is not an analysis of the particular content of the next five hundred or thousand years but a comparative analysis of methodologies and epistemological approaches best utilized in long-range foresight work. Design/methodology/approach - Analysis of multiple methods to understand long-range foresight. Literature review. Critical theoryFindings - Methodologies that forecast the long-term future are likely to more rewarding – in terms of quality, insight, and validity – if (1) they are eclectic and layered, (2) go back in time as far as they go in the future, (3) that contextualize critical factors and long-term projections through a nuanced reading of macrohistory, and (4) focus on epistemic change,the ruptures that reorder how we know the world. Research limitations/implications - Provides frameworks to study the long-range future. Gives advice on how best to design research projects that are focused on the long-term. Limitations include: no quantitative studies were reviewed and the approach while epistemologically nuanced remains bounded by Western frameworks of knowledge.Practical implications - Provides methodological and epistemological guidance as to best methods for long range foresight. Overviews strengths and weaknesses of various approaches.Originality/value - Only research project to analyse methodological aspects of 500-1000 year forecasting. Includes conventional technocratic views of the future as well as Indic and feminist perspectives. Among the few studies to link macrohistory and epistemic analysis to study the long-term.
